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Transport demand and forecast

Summary

The project ‘Transport demand and forecast – Albania-Kosovo railway link’ was initiated as part of the feasibility study to investigate the transport potential of a new railway line between Durres in Albania and Prishtina in Kosovo. The aim was to enable well-founded decisions on the feasibility of the rail project by analysing both current and future traffic volumes in detail.

Our services

The following main activities were carried out as part of the project:

  • Analysis of current transport demand: Investigation of existing transport patterns and volumes for freight and passenger transport.
  • Development of a transport demand model: modelling of transport demand with the ability to produce forecasts over a 20-year period, taking into account multimodal transport options.
  • Forecasting of future traffic: Preparation of traffic forecasts based on historical patterns and future economic growth projections, including detailed forecasts for passenger and freight traffic on different sections of the route.
  • Consideration of relevant factors: Analysis of demographic data, socio-economic data, industrial and logistical structure and developments, elasticity in terms of quality, time and price, capacity constraints, spatial changes leading to changes in transport potential, changes in transport management policy and technological changes.

Technical implementation

The technical implementation comprised the following core areas:

  • Intensive data preparation and analysis: use of PowerBI to prepare and analyse the data, development of the model in Python.
  • Comprehensive traffic analyses: Carrying out detailed analyses of import, export and transit traffic as well as traffic generators and demanders.
  • Model development and calibration: Development of a precise transport demand model that takes into account the various influencing factors and enables robust predictions.
  • Creation of an analysis model for traffic surveys: Development of a data model specifically designed for conducting and analysing traffic surveys.